Emergence of risk, uncertainty, and resilience in social-ecological-technological systems (SETS)
Speaker: Dr. Elisabeth Krueger, University of Amsterdam
Date: October 23, 2025
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Location: Virtual
Abstract The seminar will discuss different pieces of stylized modelling and empirical work engaging with the concepts of risk, uncertainty, and resilience in social-ecological and social-ecological-technological systems (SES/SETS). Applying the SES/SETS framework is not merely an acknowledgement that the systems under investigation are comprised of social and ecological and technological elements, but a shift in how these problems are conceptualized and addressed. The SES studied here include rural communities depending on local ecosystem functioning, such as fishery and pastoralist communities, while for SETS I will focus on intermittent urban water systems, differentially affecting urban managers and urban dwellers. Key to the presented work are three questions: 1) How do perceptions of and responses to risk and uncertainty shape the resilience of the affected communities? 2) How do different types of uncertainty (epistemological, ontological, frame and response uncertainty) play into their resilience? 3) What can we learn from these insights for science, governance and policy making?
Biography Dr. Elisabeth Krueger is an Assistant Professor at the Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, with a co-affiliation at the Amsterdam Institute for Social Science Research. Her research and teaching focuses on the resilience of social-ecological systems, and how human wellbeing and ecological health respond to environmental, social, and technological change. She uses complex adaptive systems methods and mixed quantitative and qualitative approaches to investigate the feedback mechanisms between the biophysical world, governance systems/social institutions, and individual and collective behaviour.
Resources
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Resilience, Adaptability and Transformability in Social–ecological Systems
A foundational Ecology and Society paper outlining key concepts for understanding how social–ecological systems persist or transform under stress. -
A social-ecological-technological systems framework for urban ecosystem services
Proposes a framework for linking social, ecological, and technological systems to manage urban ecosystem services more sustainably. -
Governing sustainable transformations of urban social-ecological-technological systems
Discusses governance approaches for transforming urban systems toward sustainability, integrating insights from multiple disciplines. -
Maintaining human wellbeing as socio-environmental systems undergo regime shifts
Explores how human wellbeing can be maintained during major environmental and social regime shifts. -
Flickering as an early warning indicator of critical transitions
Introduces the concept of 'flickering'—short-lived transitions between states—as a potential early warning signal of critical shifts in complex systems. -
Governing the Commons
Elinor Ostrom’s seminal work showing that self-governing institutions can sustainably manage shared resources, reframing Garrett Hardin’s 'tragedy of the commons.' -
Deep Uncertainty
Overview of deep uncertainty and robust decision-making from the Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science (Walker, Lempert, and Kwakkel, 2013). -
Quantifying urban water supply security under global change
A 2019 study quantifying urban water supply security in the context of global change and uncertainty. -
Reframing resilience-oriented urban water management
Krueger et al. (2025) explore how social–ecological–technological interactions shape urban water management in water-scarce regions. -
Refining the Robustness of Social-Ecological Systems Framework
Anderies et al. (2019) refine the SES framework for analyzing coastal system adaptation to global change. -
Moving from fit to fitness for governing water in the Anthropocene
A perspective on adaptive governance in the Anthropocene, emphasizing dynamic 'fitness' over static institutional 'fit.'